Climate-Fragility Risk Brief: North Africa and Sahel

Africa in general, and the Sahel in particular, is often identified as the region where climate change is most likely to undermine security and trigger violent conflict. This is a function of the region’s history of violent conflict and its perceived vulnerability to climate change.

This paper endeavours to provide a concise overview of peer-reviewed literature on the links between climate change and conflict in the Sahel, Sahara and North Africa. The author, Oli Brown, analyses the most important climate fragility risks in the region, including resource conflicts, climate-induced migration, conflicts over water distribution, and terrorist groups.

The risk brief provides a balanced presentation of the current state of knowledge and thus contributes to the ongoing debate on climate and security. It is also available in French.